A Careful Dance> How Hezbollah and Israel Have Kept the Lid on a Wider War
By David S. Wimberley
The Middle East is a region where the most seemingly insignificant event can have far-reaching consequences. The assassination of Hezbollah leader Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus on February 12, 2008, is a case in point. The killing of Mughniyeh, who was responsible for numerous terrorist attacks against Israel and the United States, was a major blow to Hezbollah and its Iranian sponsors. But the assassination also had a more subtle impact: it helped to prevent a wider war between Israel and Hezbollah.
The assassination of Mughniyeh was a major victory for Israel, but it also created a dilemma. On the one hand, Israel wanted to exploit its success by launching a major military operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon. On the other hand, Israel was concerned that such an operation could lead to a wider war with Iran and its allies in Syria and Lebanon.
Israel’s dilemma was compounded by the fact that Hezbollah was also facing a dilemma. On the one hand, Hezbollah wanted to avenge the death of Mughniyeh by launching a major military operation against Israel. On the other hand, Hezbollah was concerned that such an operation could lead to a wider war with Israel and its allies in the United States and Europe.
In the end, both sides chose to exercise restraint. Israel did not launch a major military operation against Hezbollah, and Hezbollah did not launch a major military operation against Israel. Instead, both sides engaged in a careful dance, each taking small steps to demonstrate their resolve without provoking a wider conflict.
The dance began with Israel’s response to the assassination of Mughniyeh. Instead of launching a major military operation, Israel carried out a series of targeted assassinations against Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon. These assassinations were designed to send a message to Hezbollah that Israel was determined to continue its campaign against the organization, but they were also carefully calibrated to avoid provoking a wider conflict.